Red Alert: The Razor Thin Margin for Error is Gone

 


Red Alert: The Razor Thin Margin for Error is Gone

WreckemInsider 

The euphoria is gone, replaced by a stomach-churning mix of disappointment and a very real sense of urgency. We woke up Sunday morning to the inevitable: after the 26-22 gut-punch loss to Arizona State in Tempe, the Red Raiders have plummeted from a confident No. 7 to a tenuous No. 14 in the latest AP Poll.

Let’s not sugarcoat it—Saturday's defeat hurt. It was the kind of loss that sucks the air out of a fantastic start to the season (now 6-1, 3-1 Big 12) and, more importantly, severely impacts the narrative around this team. The defending Big 12 champion Sun Devils, led by a gutty final-minute drive from QB Sam Leavitt, were deserving. We were not.

The Breakdown: What Went Wrong

We knew coming in that playing without starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) and defensive anchor Skyler Gill-Howard (season-ending ankle surgery) was going to be tough. Freshman QB Will Hammond showed his mettle in the late-game rally, giving us a 22-19 lead with under two minutes to play, but for much of the game, the offense that was averaging an FBS-best 558.8 yards was stifled, finishing with just 276 yards.

The late collapse was the most painful part. We got the go-ahead score, but the defense, which had been one of the nation’s best, failed to get the one stop we desperately needed. Two minutes was simply too much time for a magician like Leavitt, who drove 75 yards, converting a critical 4th-and-2 along the way, to snatch the victory.

CFP Hopes: The Path Just Got Rockier

With the new 12-team College Football Playoff, a single loss doesn't mean "season over" anymore. But our margin for error? It's gone.

Here is the cold, hard truth of our College Football Playoff path as a one-loss Big 12 team:

  1. Big 12 Championship is a MUST: The one-loss ceiling for a Big 12 team to be considered a top seed, or even a safe first-round host, is razor thin. With so many other top-10 teams falling this weekend (Miami, Ole Miss, LSU), the chaos is good, but for the Red Raiders to secure an at-large bid, or more importantly, one of the four first-round byes, we likely need to be the undisputed Big 12 Champion.

  2. Run the Table (or very close to it): The Red Raiders need to be a 12-1 or 11-2 Big 12 Champion to feel secure. Even at 11-2 with the title, we'd likely be on the road for the first round as an 11 or 12 seed. The committee will look at the ASU loss and wonder, and the non-conference schedule isn't doing us any favors.

  3. Morton's Return is Critical: The offense needs its conductor back. Will Hammond is tough, but the difference in overall offensive output was stark. Getting Morton healthy for the stretch run is paramount for winning the games we need to win.

Looking Ahead: OSU and BYU Define the Season

Our entire season now hinges on our ability to shake this off and re-focus. The schedule offers a brutal, but opportunistic, path ahead:

  • Next Up: Oklahoma State: This is the immediate gut-check. Win this at home, and the ASU loss starts to fade.

  • The Big One: BYU: The Cougars are 4-0 in conference play, likely top-12, and host us on November 8th. That game, along with the road trip to Kansas State, will define our Big 12 title aspirations.

The time for easy wins is over. The Red Raiders now face a five-game gauntlet where every snap matters. We lost the luxury of cruising to the title game. Now, it's about sheer grit.

What do you think, Red Raider Nation? Can we still run the table, win the Big 12, and secure a spot in the 12-team CFP? Drop your comments below!

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